USD/JPY Price Forecast: Climbs to mid-159.00s; remains confined in a familiar range

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The USD/JPY pair is seen building on the previous day's goodish rebound from the 158.25 region, or over a one-week low, and gaining some follow-through positive traction on Friday. This marks the third straight day of a move up and lifts spot prices to mid-159.00s during the Asian session.

USD/JPY attracts buyers for the third straight day amid a combination of supporting factors.
Economic concerns due to the Iran conflict and reduced BoJ rate hike bets undermine the JPY.
Hormuz risks benefit the USD and spot prices, though dovish Fed bets might cap further gains.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative underperformance in the wake of growing market concerns about the potential economic implications of the Middle East conflict. Furthermore, declining market expectations for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in April further undermine the JPY and act as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the instability in the Strait of Hormuz, due to the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, assists the US Dollar (USD) in preserving the previous day's recovery gains from its lowest level since late February. However, hopes for Iran diplomacy and fading hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) bets cap the buck and the USD/JPY pair.

The overnight rebound from the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support on the 4-hour chart, which coincides with the lower end of a short-term trading range, and the subsequent move up favor the USD/JPY bulls. Moreover, momentum metrics validate the positive outlook and back the case for a further appreciating move.

The Relative Strength Index is around 61, suggesting firm but not overstretched buying pressure. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has turned higher in positive territory. This hints at strengthening upside momentum and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains to the upside.

In the meantime, initial support is seen at the recent price pivot near 159.47, with a deeper cushion provided by the 200-period EMA at 158.46, which should act as a key downside reference. As long as sellers fail to force a sustained break below the 200-period EMA, dips are likely to be treated as corrective within the prevailing bullish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.01%	0.03%	0.21%	-0.14%	-0.12%	0.03%	-0.05%
EUR	0.01%		0.04%	0.19%	-0.15%	-0.11%	0.03%	-0.05%
GBP	-0.03%	-0.04%		0.15%	-0.19%	-0.15%	-0.01%	-0.08%
JPY	-0.21%	-0.19%	-0.15%		-0.34%	-0.32%	-0.19%	-0.25%
CAD	0.14%	0.15%	0.19%	0.34%		0.02%	0.16%	0.10%
AUD	0.12%	0.11%	0.15%	0.32%	-0.02%		0.14%	0.07%
NZD	-0.03%	-0.03%	0.01%	0.19%	-0.16%	-0.14%		-0.07%
CHF	0.05%	0.05%	0.08%	0.25%	-0.10%	-0.07%	0.07%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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