1.3500: Might act as key barrier for GBP/USD on US NFP day

The British Pound extends its correction to near 1.3425 against the US Dollar.
Investors keenly await the US NFP data for September.
The BoE hiked interest rates by 25 bps to 4% on Thursday.

The British Pound (GBP) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, extending its correction from an almost eight-week high of 1.3500 to near 1.3425 in the European trade. The GBP/USD pair faces pressure as the US Dollar bounces back ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

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At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% higher to near 101.77.

Analysts at MUFG/BTMU highlight that “attention turns to today’s US nonfarm payrolls report, with markets expecting 70k jobs added in October, up from 29k in September.” They note that “stronger-than-expected JOLTS and ADP data suggest a better-than-expected US labour demand, raising the risk of further Fed tightening”.

The US NFP data is expected to influence Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations.

On the British Pound front, the Bank of England (BoE) delivered an interest rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) on Thursday, pushed rates to 4%, the first in 2026. The BoE was anticipated to hike interest rates to contain accelerating inflationary pressures.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3425. The pair retains a constructive short-term bias as it holds above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3372 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downswing at 1.3409, suggesting buyers are defending higher ground. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 57 keeps a positive tilt, hinting that upside momentum remains in place while staying shy of overbought territory.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 1.3472, with further hurdles at the 78.6% retracement around 1.3562 and the recent cycle high region close to 1.3677. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50% retracement at 1.3409, followed by the 20-EMA at 1.3372; a deeper pullback would expose the 38.2% level at 1.3345 and the 23.6% retracement near 1.3267, ahead of more substantial demand around the 1.3140 cycle low.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator

Nonfarm Payrolls

The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.

Why it matters to traders?

America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.

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