Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes argues that sustained higher Oil prices are likely to support the Dollar and pressure EUR/USD. He recalls that when Brent traded near current levels in early 2022, EUR/USD fell sharply from around 1.13 to 0.95. Juckes maintains an end‑year EUR/USD forecast of 1.13, citing US economic strength and policy mix.

Oil shock risk keeps Euro vulnerable

"Oil prices are back at levels (USD 122p/b for Brent) that were seen in Q1 2022."

"However, concern that the current ceasefire could be followed by renewed conflict and further pressure on global oil supplies can be a trigger for the dollar to make a move higher – EUR/USD falling below the 1.14 low we saw at the start of the conflict."

"Our current end-year forecast is 1.13 for EUR/USD, because we haven’t seen signs of widespread shunning of US assets by investors and, in the longer run, it’s the strength of the US economy and the fiscal/monetary policy mix which determine rates, more than the desire of the President."

"The prospect of a longer conflict, leading to more serious energy shortages, increased geopolitical tension and higher-for-longer oil prices, may well break the deadlock and move currencies out of their ranges."

"EUR/USD hasn’t fallen further this morning, but a fresh test of that 1.14 year-to-date low makes sense in the coming days/weeks"

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)