Commerzbank analysts highlight that stronger heatwaves in Europe and Asia are likely to lift electricity demand and gas-fired power use, complicating European storage refilling. An explosion at Qatar’s LNG complex may delay a planned ramp-up to 80% of pre-war exports, keeping LNG supply tight for longer and potentially supporting higher gas prices through the summer.

Heatwaves and LNG risks tighten market

"Upward pressure on electricity prices is further reinforced by stronger heatwaves and the resulting increased use of air conditioning, which raises electricity demand."

"This in turn could boost the need for gas-fired power and thus push gas prices higher."

"This applies not only to Europe at the present time, but also – due to the El Niño weather phenomenon – particularly to Asia in the coming months."

"If gas demand is elevated – whether in Europe itself or in Asia – this could prove challenging in view of the persistent supply problems stemming from the Iran conflict."

"The timeline recently announced by the facility’s operator - to increase LNG exports to 80% of pre-war levels within two months - could turn out to be too optimistic."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)