Rabobank’s Global Strategist Michael Every highlights that Oil prices fell as the United States (US) energy secretary reported rising Hormuz transits, with evidence the US Navy may be moving more crude through the Strait than official data show. Every notes renewed crude offers from United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait, higher Saudi jet fuel exports, and warns that an extended Hormuz closure still carries unresolved tail risks.

Strait of Hormuz dynamics shape Oil outlook

"Furthermore, note oil had slid ahead of the latest attacks after the US energy secretary said Hormuz transits are ‘meaningfully’ climbing."

"Crucially, there is evidence suggesting the US Navy is ushering more oil through Hormuz, with transponders off, than official data on ship movements show."

"Indeed, both the UAE and Kuwait are now offering crude to Asia again, while Saudi jet fuel supply to Europe is higher than before the Hormuz closure."

"That may not get much fanfare, but it is extremely significant if so."

"Of course, oil then climbed after the US strikes on Iran - and a Hormuz reopening date beyond what we already expected (September) was just flagged."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)