ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say Oil prices fell sharply after the US granted a 60-day waiver allowing Iranian exports, adding to pressure from rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz. They highlight uncertainty over how quickly Persian Gulf production and transit can normalise, stressing that fragile US-Iran ceasefire dynamics keep significant upside risk for Oil volatility.

Iran waiver and Hormuz flows weigh

"Oil prices came under further pressure yesterday, with ICE Brent settling 3.3% lower."

"The real downward price pressure yesterday came from the US issuing a 60-day licence, which allows Iran to export oil."

"Looking ahead, the key uncertainty remains how quickly oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz can normalise."

"While the consensus is that this normalisation will take months rather than weeks, price action in the oil market suggests a more rapid recovery."

"Clearly, the evolution of US-Iran talks will be crucial to how quickly energy flows resume."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)