ING’s Chris Turner highlights that higher energy prices are negative for EUR/USD, but recent European Central Bank repricing has narrowed EUR/USD swap differentials to some of the tightest levels since 2024. This is offering the Euro some support, with the 1.1500–1.1530 area seen as near-term support while German data and energy moves guide direction.

Rate differentials cushion Euro downside

"Repricing in the eurozone curve has actually been a little larger than in the US, meaning that two-year EUR/USD swap rate differentials have narrowed into 95bp – some of the narrowest levels since late 2024."

"So, while high energy prices are a clean EUR/USD negative, rate differentials are providing a modest offset."

"This could firm up the 1.1500/1530 area as near term support."

"Let's see whether EUR/USD trades inside yesterday's 1.1550-1.1650 range and thinks about building a base."

"But another big leg higher in energy could easily see EUR/USD hit new lows, and we doubt investors will want to chase EUR/USD higher on any soft US data given possible weekend event risk."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)