AUD/NZD Price Forecast: Retreats below 1.2200 on hawkish RBNZ, weak Australian data

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The Aussie Dollar (AUD) is dropping sharply against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on Wednesday.

AUD/NZD retreats from 1.2286 highs to levels below 1.2200.
A hawkish RBNZ and soft Australian CPI figures are hammering the Aussie.
The pair approaches the neckline of a Double Top pattern.

The Aussie Dollar (AUD) is dropping sharply against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on Wednesday. The pair has lost more than 0.8% so far today, hitting session lows at 1.2173, hammered by a combination of a hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and softer-than-expected Australian inflation figures.

The RBNZ left interest rates on hold, as widely expected earlier on Wednesday, but a split monetary policy committee hints at upcoming rate hikes. RBNZ Governor, Anna Breman, who used her casting vote to hold on Wednesday, affirmed that policymakers are concerned about second-round effects on inflation, and that further “OCR increases are likely at coming meetings.”

In Australia, April’s Consumer Prices Index (CPI) showed softer-than-expected inflationary pressures. These figures provide some leeway for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to wait and see for a clearer assessment of the consequences of the war in Iran, and have prompted investors to pare back hopes of an August rate hike.

Technical Indicator: A potential double top warns of a trend shift

AUD/NZD has lost more than 120 pips on Wednesday and is showing signs consistent with a trend shift. A bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart, and a potential double top at the 1.2285 area are clear indicators that bulls are giving up.

The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to the mid-30s, hinting at persistent downside pressure. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned slightly negative, reinforcing the notion that sellers are taking control.

Immediate support is located at the 1.2125-1.2135 area, where May 7, 12, and 21 lows meet the neckline of the mentioned double top pattern. Further down, the April 9 and 14 lows, around 1.2045, would come into focus. The double top's measured target is right below the 1.2000 psychological level. On the upside, in the unlikely case of a break above 1.2285, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the April-May rally lies at the 1.2380 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.13%	-0.04%	0.03%	0.05%	0.30%	-0.65%	-0.11%
EUR	0.13%		0.09%	0.15%	0.17%	0.39%	-0.52%	0.01%
GBP	0.04%	-0.09%		0.04%	0.08%	0.32%	-0.60%	-0.06%
JPY	-0.03%	-0.15%	-0.04%		0.02%	0.25%	-0.67%	-0.12%
CAD	-0.05%	-0.17%	-0.08%	-0.02%		0.23%	-0.67%	-0.14%
AUD	-0.30%	-0.39%	-0.32%	-0.25%	-0.23%		-0.90%	-0.35%
NZD	0.65%	0.52%	0.60%	0.67%	0.67%	0.90%		0.53%
CHF	0.11%	-0.01%	0.06%	0.12%	0.14%	0.35%	-0.53%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).