Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) narrow 5–4 decision to hike in March leaves upcoming labor data crucial for timing the next move. Consensus looks for slower job gains and steady unemployment, with stronger figures likely to bring forward a further rate increase. BBH notes AUD/USD faces resistance near 0.7200 and support around 0.7000.

Labor report key for next hike

"At its last March 17 meeting, the RBA delivered a back-to-back 25bps cash rate target hike to 4.10% in a narrow 5-4 vote. The four dissenters wanted a hawkish hold, citing in part uncertainty surrounding the extent of tightness in the labor market."

"As such, Australia’s March labor force report will set the bar for the timing of the next RBA rate increase (Thursday)."

"The economy is projected to add +17.8k jobs vs. +48.9k in February and the unemployment rate is seen at 4.3% for a second straight month, in line with the RBA’s 2026 projection."

"Stronger jobs growth would lift bets of a follow-up 25bps rate hike at the next May 5 policy decision (currently 62% priced-in), while softer data would push it out to later."

"AUD/USD faces stiff resistance at 0.7200, while immediate support is offered at 0.7000."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)