Rabobank’s Michael Every discusses a material shift in Australia’s macro backdrop. RBA minutes explain a 25 bps rate hike against stronger forecasts, while the IMF warns that the 5% deposit scheme for first-time buyers will fuel housing inflation and should be scrapped. Rabobank notes this policy mix complicates RBA forecasting and Overnight Cash Rate dynamics.

Housing stimulus collides with tighter policy

"The RBA minutes this morning, which explained why rates were hiked 25bps, stated “the latest forecasts produced by the staff were materially stronger than those produced in August and November.”"

"The IMF just warned Australia that its 5% deposit scheme for first-time home buyers will push up housing inflation and should be scrapped – as others warn it’s already too late to do so."

"The RBA had warned of the same thing months ago too yet now seems surprised it might have shifted their forecasts and Overnight Cash Rate."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)