• ​Bitcoin rebounded after weaker-than-expected US payroll data reduced near-term rate hike expectations, providing temporary relief for risk assets.
• Whale distribution has largely stopped after approximately $39 billion in Bitcoin sales, removing a major source of market selling pressure.
• BTC's options markets remain defensively positioned, with rising implied volatility signaling expectations of heightened market uncertainty.

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded after weaker-than-expected US labor market data eased expectations for tighter monetary policy.

In a report on Friday, crypto asset manager CoinShares stated that the recovery does not yet signal the start of a sustained uptrend, as restrictive Federal Reserve (Fed) policy and lingering market headwinds weigh on sentiment.

Weaker jobs data eases pressure as Bitcoin climbs over $62K

CoinShares shared that the June nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000, well below the consensus forecast of 115,000. The data pushed the two-year US Treasury yield lower and prompted markets to scale back expectations of a near-term rate hike, helping Bitcoin rebound from its recent cycle low near $57,000.

“Today's print helps at the margin; it does not amount to a policy pivot,” the report stated.

CoinShares noted that the market's reaction underscored Bitcoin's sensitivity to changes in interest-rate expectations. However, the firm argued that while macroeconomic conditions remain challenging, unwinding among larger investors has calmed.

“Beneath the surface, the picture looks better than sentiment suggests. Whale distribution appears to have run its course,” CoinShares added.

The report highlighted that wallets holding more than 100,000 BTC distributed approximately $39 billion worth of Bitcoin following the October 2025 market peak, but that selling pressure has now largely subsided.

“That selling has since slowed to a stop, removing the dominant overhang that defined 2025,” CoinShares wrote.

The firm further noted that Bitcoin ETPs have recorded roughly $2.7 billion in net outflows this year. On the other hand, artificial intelligence-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted about $5.5 billion over the same period.

The divergence suggests that investors shifted capital toward one of the market's strongest-performing themes instead of abandoning Bitcoin altogether.

CoinShares also cautioned that several risks continue to cloud the outlook, including the absence of easier monetary policy, continued supply overhang linked to Strategy, geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran and slowing momentum for US crypto legislation.

Options positioning points to continued uncertainty

Glassnode analysts echoed the cautious tone, highlighting consistent defensive positioning in the options market even as Bitcoin rebounds from around $58,000.

“Options markets are repricing risk, volatility and the probabilities investors assign to the next major move,” Glassnode wrote in an X post.

The firm stated that implied volatility, as measured by the DVOL index, has been trending higher, reflecting growing uncertainty as Bitcoin's recent sell-off unfolded. However, volatility remains well below levels seen during previous major market disruptions, indicating that traders are repricing risk.

Glassnode added that options markets continue to favor downside protection, with one-week 25 Delta Skew remaining positive as put options trade at a premium to calls. Bitcoin has also remained in negative gamma territory, meaning dealer hedging activity could amplify price swings in either direction.

The current options market suggests investors remain vigilant and expect uncertainty to persist despite Bitcoin's recent rebound, Glassnode analysts noted.

BTC is trading at $62,450, up 1.5% over the past 24 hours at the time of writing.