Societe Generale’s UK team reports a sharp selloff in 10‑year gilts, with yields hitting 5% as markets priced in more BoE tightening. They see this as an overreaction and now expect the MPC to stay on hold through 2026 due to the energy shock. Upcoming UK PMIs and inflation data will be key for reassessing growth and price pressures.

BoE seen on hold as energy shock bites

"Last week in the UK, another 10‑year gilt sell‑off pushed the yield to 5%, its highest level since 2008."

"Given the escalation of attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, we now expect the MPC to remain on hold throughout 2026."

"This week in the UK, MPC speakers, including Greene, Taylor, and Breeden, may note that market pricing has gone too far."

"Of the data releases, the March PMIs will be key as the first read on the energy shock."

"The BoE now expects March inflation to reach 3.5% yoy, up from its previous forecast of 3.1% yoy, driven by higher fuel prices."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)