TD Securities strategists argue that recent improvements in Canadian growth data justify a more constructive view on the Canadian Dollar (CAD). They see scope for USD/CAD to move lower from stretched post-FOMC levels, and have implemented a 2‑month 1.4050/1.39 put spread structure to express the view that the pair can eventually trade below 1.40.

Data-driven retrace case

"On the CAD side, the market has become too pessimistic with Canada's growth outlook again, despite improvement for Canadian data in recent weeks."

"Improving Canadian data should allow USD/CAD to eventually retrace below 1.40, and we expressed the view via a 2m 1.4050/1.39 put spread."

"The post-FOMC rally looks stretched in the CAD, with spot last sustaining levels above 1.42 only when broad-based tariff risks were elevated around last year’s “Liberation Day”— a scenario that appears unlikely to repeat this year."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)