TD Securities expects China’s January CPI to slow, with its forecast at 0.3% year-on-year versus 0.4% consensus, driven by sharply easing food inflation after recent surges. Weak services price pressures reflect tepid demand. TD Securities anticipates that the PBoC will resume rate cuts in Q2, using available policy space to support growth.

Food disinflation and Q2 rate cut view

"Our tracking of wholesale food prices show that food inflation eased sharply in January after the surge over the past 2 months."

"TD forecasts +0.3% y/y vs consensus at +0.4%."

"Slower food inflation should drive down the headline print from 0.8% y/y last month given that services price pressures remain weak from tepid demand."

"We expect the PBoC to resume rate cuts in Q2 as it has room to adjust monetary policy to support growth."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)