ECB Philip Lane: Oil shock to require rate hikes

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The European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane crossed the wires, saying that the energy shock caused by the Iran war will require a restrictive policy at a conference in London.

Lane said that “a mid-size but not-too-persistent overshoot could warrant some measured adjustment,” adding that the response has to be “appropriately forceful or persistent” on

Lane reaffirmed the ECB's line that "a mid-size but not-too-persistent overshoot could warrant some measured adjustment" while the response had to be "appropriately forceful or persistent" would require a firmer or longer-lasting policy reaction.

EUR/USD reaction on the headline

The EUR/USD bounced off around the 1.1700 figure, past the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 1.1708, which could open the door for further gains. Up next is the 20-day SMA at 1.1730.

ECB FAQs

What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro?

In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.

What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.