EUR/CAD Price Forecast: Consolidates around mid-1.6100s; Canadian jobs data awaited

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The EUR/CAD pair oscillates in a range around mid-1.6100s through the early European session on Friday, though it seems to have stalled the previous day's modest pullback from over a three-week high.

EUR/CAD stalls the overnight pullback from the 1.6215-1.6220 confluence hurdle.
Traders seem reluctant to place directional bets ahead of the Canadian jobs data.
The technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

The EUR/CAD pair oscillates in a range around mid-1.6100s through the early European session on Friday, though it seems to have stalled the previous day's modest pullback from over a three-week high. Spot prices, however, lack any firm intraday direction as traders opt to wait for the release of Canadian monthly employment details before placing fresh bets.

From a technical perspective, the 1.1615-1.1620 region represents a confluence hurdle comprising a descending channel from the 1.6200 mark and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The latter sits above the 200-day SMA but has flattened, while the EUR/CAD pair remains sandwiched between them. Spot prices trade below the 100-day SMA at 1.6213 and above the 200-day at 1.6019.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has turned positive above its signal line, and a modestly expanding histogram hints at improving momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 50 (neutral). Holding above the 200-day SMA support near the 1.6020 area would keep downside contained and leave room for a push toward the 1.6215-1.6220 confluence.

A daily close through the channel cap could extend the recovery. The MACD remaining in positive territory would reinforce the bid, whereas a slip back toward the zero line would soften the tone. An RSI break higher from 50 would add credence to an upside continuation scenario.

EUR/CAD daily chart

Economic Indicator

Net Change in Employment

The Net Change in Employment released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of people in employment in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and indicates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

Canada’s labor market statistics tend to have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar, with the Employment Change figure carrying most of the weight. There is a significant correlation between the amount of people working and consumption, which impacts inflation and the Bank of Canada’s rate decisions, in turn moving the C$. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be CAD bullish, with currency markets usually reacting steadily and consistently in response to the publication.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)