EUR/GBP edges lower to near 0.8700, ECB hawkish stance cushions downside

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The EUR/GBP cross declines to near 0.8700 during the early European session on Wednesday. A two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States (US) and Iran has improved global risk sentiment, which typically favors the Pound Sterling (GBP) over the Euro (EUR).

EUR/GBP weakens to around 0.8700 in Wednesday’s early European session.
Trump claimed 'big day for world peace' as attacks paused
ECB hawkish tone could underpin the Euro against the Pound Sterling.

US President Donald Trump said on a Truth Social post that Tuesday was “a big day for world peace.” Trump added that the US will be “helping with the traffic buildup” in the strait of Hormuz, and that “big money will be made” as Iran begins reconstruction. This statement came as Iran accepted a two-week ceasefire.

However, the hawkish tone of the European Central Bank (ECB) could help limit the EUR’s losses. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasizied that policy will remain restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target. Markets have priced in 2–3 interest rate hikes for 2026 due to surging energy-driven inflation, a significant shift from previous expectations of holding rates.

The Bank of England (BoE) has shifted from a bias toward cutting rates to a "wait-and-see" stance. The UK central bank is anticipated to leave Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% for the rest of the year, according to a narrow majority of economists polled by Reuters who have mostly abandoned their previous expectations for cuts but have not followed financial markets in expecting nearly three rate rises this year.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.