EUR/NOK edged lower following Norges Bank’s policy update, as the revised rate path disappointed market expectations. Despite potential dips in oil prices, upside appears limited, with the pair likely moving toward 11.75 in early 2026 amid resumed central bank purchases of NOK, Nordea's economist Sara Midtgaard reports.

Rate path revision smaller than market expected

"EUR/NOK edged lower after Norges Bank’s policy meeting, as the rate path was revised down by less than the market had anticipated. While there is a risk that EUR/NOK could test the 12 level again, we see limited upside risk beyond this point."

"Even if Oil prices were to decline somewhat further from the current levels into the first quarter, this does not necessarily imply renewed upside in EUR/NOK. From 2 January 2026, we expect Norges Bank to buy a total of NOK 950 million per day. This represents a notable shift as Norges Bank’s extraordinary transfer of NOK 82.1bn during 2025 comes to an end."

"Even if Oil prices were to fall towards $55 per barrel, we still expect EUR/NOK to move down towards 11.75 during the first quarter."