EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears Flirt with 61.8% Fibo. support near 1.1775 area

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The EUR/USD pair extends the previous day's late pullback from the 1.1835 region and attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1775-1.1770 area, down nearly 0.15% for the day amid a modest US Dollar (USD) strength.

EUR/USD drifts lower during the Asian session amid a modest USD strength.
The bearish technical setup backs the case for further near-term depreciation.
The pivotal 200-day SMA support is the last line of defence for bullish traders.

Bearish traders now await a sustained break and acceptance below the 61.7% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent goodish rebound from a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, tested in January. This is followed by last week's swing low, around the 1.1745-1.1740 region, below which the EUR/USD pair could resume its recent corrective slide from the vicinity of the 1.2100 mark, or the highest level since June 2021, touched last month.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has deepened on the negative side, suggesting the MACD line sits below the Signal line near the zero mark and pointing to building bearish pressure. The Relative Strength Index stands at 46, below the 50 midline, reflecting mild bearish momentum without oversold conditions. This, in turn, backs the case for further losses towards the 78.6% retracement level support, around the 1.1695 region.

That said, the 200-day SMA trends modestly higher at 1.1658, highlighting a still supportive long-term backdrop. The EUR/USD pair holds above this gauge, which keeps the broader bias underpinned while the slope of the SMA rises.

(A part of the technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD daily chart

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.18%	0.09%	0.39%	0.06%	-0.06%	-0.05%	0.28%
EUR	-0.18%		-0.09%	0.20%	-0.12%	-0.24%	-0.22%	0.10%
GBP	-0.09%	0.09%		0.29%	-0.03%	-0.15%	-0.13%	0.19%
JPY	-0.39%	-0.20%	-0.29%		-0.32%	-0.43%	-0.43%	-0.10%
CAD	-0.06%	0.12%	0.03%	0.32%		-0.11%	-0.11%	0.22%
AUD	0.06%	0.24%	0.15%	0.43%	0.11%		0.00%	0.34%
NZD	0.05%	0.22%	0.13%	0.43%	0.11%	-0.01%		0.33%
CHF	-0.28%	-0.10%	-0.19%	0.10%	-0.22%	-0.34%	-0.33%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).