EUR/USD weakens to near 1.1450 amid Fed rate hold, ECB rate decision looms

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The EUR/USD pair slumps to around 1.1465 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) on a hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Attention will shift to the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision later on Thursday.

EUR/USD tumbles to near 1.1465 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
Fed kept a steady hand on its overnight lending rate at its March meeting on Wednesday.
Markets expect the ECB to hold the key interest rates steady on Thursday.

The Fed decided to hold the interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% at its March policy meeting on Wednesday. The central bank suggests a cut may be in the cards in 2026. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “The forecast is that we will be making progress on inflation, not as much as we had hoped, but some progress on inflation.” He added that surging oil prices due to the Iran war are expected to increase inflation in the near term.

Additionally, Powell indicated that he will remain as Fed chair until an investigation involving the central bank’s headquarters is over and, in any event will stay on until his successor is officially confirmed.

The ECB is expected to keep its three key interest rates unchanged at its March meeting on Thursday. Financial markets shifted away from expecting further rate cuts. Traders are now fully pricing in two rate hikes by the end of 2026 due to inflation, according to Bloomberg.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.