Euro fails to gain traction as geopolitical risks overshadow ECB rate hike

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EUR/USD struggles near two-month lows on Thursday as traders show a muted reaction to the latest European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. Meanwhile, escalating tensions in the Middle East keep risk sentiment subdued and support the US Dollar (USD), leaving the Euro (EUR) on the defensive.

EUR/USD holds near two-month lows despite the ECB's interest rate hike as Middle East tensions support the US Dollar.
The ECB ends a seven-meeting pause with a 25 bps rate increase.
US President Donald Trump renews threats against Iran.

At the time of writing, the pair is trading in a narrow range around 1.1525.

The ECB delivered a widely anticipated 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike on Thursday, raising the Deposit Facility Rate to 2.25%. The central bank ended a seven-meeting pause as policymakers sought to address inflation risks stemming from rising Oil prices.

In its monetary policy statement, the ECB said that "the war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures" and noted that the decision to raise interest rates is "robust across a range of scenarios mapping out how the shock might evolve and affect the medium-term outlook for the euro area."

ECB President Christine Lagarde said there will be no pre-set path for interest rates. Lagarde also noted that risks to inflation remain tilted to the upside, while risks to economic growth are skewed to the downside.

The latest Eurosystem staff projections showed headline inflation is expected to average 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. The 2026 and 2027 forecasts were revised higher from the March projections.

The Euro, however, failed to capitalize on the decision as renewed threats from US President Donald Trump against Iran lifted the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is consolidating gains above the 100.00 mark.

Trump said in a Truth Social post that the United States would hit Iran "very hard" tonight, adding that Washington will take over Iran’s Kharg ⁠island and ⁠other oil ⁠infrastructure points.

On the data front, US producer inflation accelerated in May, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates higher for longer.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 6.5% YoY from 5.7% in April, slightly above market expectations of 6.4%. However, core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, eased to 4.9% from 5.4%, below the 5.2% consensus.

ECB FAQs

What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro?

In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.

What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.