Euro softens below 1.1800 on US-Iran ceasefire risks, traders await US CPI data

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The EUR/USD pair loses ground to near 1.1775 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Euro (EUR) softens against the US Dollar (USD) as traders turn cautious ahead of the US April inflation report and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

EUR/USD weakens to around 1.1775 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire was on ‘massive life support.’
Hawkish expectations for the ECB might help limit the Euro’s losses.

Reuters reported on Monday that Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that Iran’s military was fully prepared to retaliate against any future attacks after rising tensions threatened the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East.

Earlier Monday, US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire between the US and Iran is on “massive life support” after he rejected Tehran’s latest peace offer, which he called “simply unacceptable.” Signs of a prolonged conflict between the US and Iran could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair in the near term.

On the other hand, a hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB) could provide some support to the shared currency. ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher said on Monday that there’s no need to delay the interest rate hikes if energy prices don’t improve swiftly.

Financial markets are now pricing in a 92% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) hike at the June meeting, with a total of three hikes anticipated by the end of 2026, according to Reuters.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.