ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey warn that European gas faces growing upside risks after President Putin signalled Russia could redirect gas away from the EU, just as global LNG flows from the Persian Gulf are disrupted. They highlight tight EU gas storage, significant Russian LNG exposure, and a strained global LNG balance as key supports for higher TTF prices.

Russian threat tightens European gas outlook

"We could see a strong open in European gas markets today, with President Putin saying Russia will consider redirecting gas supplies away from the EU. Russian gas flows to the EU have fallen substantially in recent years and flows were set to gradually start falling further from April 2026 through until the end of 2027 amid an EU ban on Russian gas imports. This poses risks to the European balance amid the current supply impact from the Persian Gulf."

"Meanwhile, EU gas storage is tight at less than 30% full and around levels seen at the same stage in 2022."

"Putin’s threat puts a sizeable amount of supply at risk. In 2025, the EU imported almost 38bcm of natural gas/LNG from Russia, 12% of total EU gas/LNG imports. These imports from Russia consisted of 20bcm of LNG and 18bcm of pipeline flows (via Turkstream)."

"We believe LNG flows are the key risk. In more normal times it would be more manageable with the global LNG market to see an adjustment in trade flows over time. However, with 110bcm per year of Persian Gulf impacted currently, this would be a challenge for Europe."

"Clearly, this news will only exacerbate supply jitters in the European gas market, leaving upside in the short-term to TTF, assuming markets have to continue to face Persian Gulf LNG supply disruptions."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)