Forex Today: Markets turn risk-averse as ceasefire optimism fades

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Here is what you need to know on Thursday, March 26:

Financial markets adopt a cautious stance early Thursday as hopes of an end to the conflict in the Middle East wane. The US Dollar (USD) Index holds comfortably above 99.50 after closing in positive territory on Wednesday, while US stock index futures lose between 0.3% and 0.4%. In the meantime, crude Oil prices edge higher, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate trading above $91.50 and rising about 1.5% on the day. The US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims data later in the day and several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will be delivering speeches.

Iran has reportedly rejected the United States' 15-point plan to end the war and issued their own five conditions, which include guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparations, in addition to having authority over the Strait of Hormuz. In a briefing on Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt refused to say whether the US was considering a ground operation, but noted that formal authorisation from Congress would not be needed if the US decided to execute such plan.

EUR/USD lost more than 0.4% on Wednesday and erased a large portion of its weekly gains. The pair stays relatively quiet and fluctuates in a narrow range at around 1.1550 in the European session on Thursday.

Gold climbed above $4,600 on Wednesday but reversed its direction to close with small gains. XAU/USD stays on the back foot in the European morning and loses more than 1% on the day below $4,500.

GBP/USD closed in negative territory for the second consecutive day on Wednesday and continued to stretch lower during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. At the time of press, the pair was down about 0.1% near 1.3350.

USD/JPY stays in a consolidation phase slightly below 159.50 after rising 0.4% on Wednesday.

AUD/USD struggles to stage a rebound and holds steady at around 0.6950 after losing 0.7% on Wednesday. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Christopher Kent warned that if the Middle East conflict prolongs, the economic damage would be greater and policymakers would need to cap inflation amid surging energy prices.

Risk sentiment FAQs

What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets?

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics?

Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"?

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"?

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.