GBP/USD Price Forecast: Sustenance above 20-day EMA backs further upside above 1.3400

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The GBP/USD pair trades almost flat at around 1.3355 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Cable consolidates as investors await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT.

GBP/USD flattens around 1.3355 in the countdown to the FOMC Minutes.
In the Fed’s June policy meeting, the central bank left interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range.
Andy Burnham has already confirmed that he will follow the principles of Labour’s manifesto.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 101.05.

Investors will closely read the FOMC Minutes to gauge possible reasons that led officials to abandon forward guidance on the monetary policy outlook. In the policy meeting, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, citing upside inflation risks, and 9 out of 19 policymakers favored an interest rate hike by the year-end.

Meanwhile, the British Pound (GBP) struggles for direction as investors seek fresh cues regarding the United Kingdom’s (UK) fiscal policy outlook under new leadership. However, newly elected Member of Parliament and Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, the front-runner for UK leadership after Prime Minister (PM) Keir Starmer’s resignation, has already stated that he will continue Labour’s manifesto.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades calmly near 1.3355, holding a mildly bullish bias as it remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3321.

The bounce from the recent 1.32 area and the pair’s ability to stay supported by the short-term EMA hint at a tentative recovery phase, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.8 shows modest positive momentum without entering overbought territory.

On the topside, the next significant barrier is the downward resistance trend line, with its break level around 1.3500. Looking down, the immediate support is reinforced by the 20-day EMA at 1.3321, and a daily close back below this level would weaken the current constructive tone and force the pair to revisit the June 24 low at around 1.3140.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator

FOMC Minutes

FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.

Why it matters to traders?

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.