GBP/USD surges as US-Iran deal hopes hammer USD

Pound rallies as Iran peace hopes outweigh strong US jobs

Sentiment turned positive after Axios reported that the US and Iran are discussing a 14-point, one-page memorandum of understanding (MOU). If signed, the MOU would end the war, enter a 30-day period of negotiations, open the Strait of Hormuz and limit Iran’s nuclear program. On the US front, the US Treasury will unfreeze Tehran’s funds.

In the US, the labour market continued to show signs of strength and resilience as revealed by Automatic Data Processing (ADP). The ADP National Employment Change posted its largest increase in 15 months in April, rising by 109,000, exceeding forecasts of 99,000 and March’s downwardly revised 61,000.

Although the data is Dollar-positive, the Greenback is on the defensive as long as oil prices continue to fall, with WTI tanking over 7% on news of Iran. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the buck’s value against six currencies, is down 0.49% at 98.00.

Recently, St. Louis Fed Alberto Musalem stated that risks to monetary policy have shifted towards higher inflation. He said that “there are plausible scenarios that would require rates to remain stable for some time,” adding that “current policy is either neutral or slightly accommodative in real terms.”

In the UK, political turmoil was sparked by the former UK ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, exerting pressure on PM Keir Starmer. Starmer’s party is bracing for losses in local elections, which increases speculation that he could be replaced.

Data-wise, the S&P Global Services PMI expanded as expected, yet UK firms witnessed the largest increase in prices paid in three and a half years in April.

On Thursday, the UK economic schedule is absent, but the results of the local elections could grab the headlines. In the US, traders' eyes will be on Initial Jobless Claims and speeches by Federal Reserve officials.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3598. The pair retains a constructive near-term bias while holding above the latest reading of the simple moving average cluster (50-, 100- and 200-day SMA composite) at 1.3415, which now underpins the advance together with the longer-term rising trend line drawn from 1.3035. The broad technical tone is further supported by the ongoing recovery away from the recent mid-1.33s consolidation, even as the downwards-sloping resistance line from 1.3869 still caps the broader topside for now.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the descending trend line coming from 1.3869, and a clear break above this barrier would open the way for a more sustained recovery. On the downside, immediate support is seen near the 1.3598 area as a short-term pivot, followed by stronger demand at the triple simple moving average cluster around 1.3415; a loss of this area would expose the rising structural support line off 1.3035.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.52%	-0.40%	-0.95%	0.03%	-0.72%	-1.16%	-0.52%
EUR	0.52%		0.11%	-0.39%	0.56%	-0.19%	-0.67%	0.00%
GBP	0.40%	-0.11%		-0.51%	0.45%	-0.30%	-0.77%	-0.08%
JPY	0.95%	0.39%	0.51%		0.96%	0.21%	-0.25%	0.45%
CAD	-0.03%	-0.56%	-0.45%	-0.96%		-0.74%	-1.20%	-0.52%
AUD	0.72%	0.19%	0.30%	-0.21%	0.74%		-0.45%	0.22%
NZD	1.16%	0.67%	0.77%	0.25%	1.20%	0.45%		0.67%
CHF	0.52%	-0.01%	0.08%	-0.45%	0.52%	-0.22%	-0.67%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).