Gold slumps below $4,250 on renewed US-Iran tensions, US CPI data in focus

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Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to around $4,235, the lowest since March 23, during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal extends its downside on renewed tensions in the Middle East and rising expectations of a US interest rate hike this year.

Gold price tumbles to near $4,235 in Wednesday's early Asian session.
The US launched new strikes on Iran after a helicopter was downed, raising fears of prolonged conflict.
Traders brace for the US May CPI inflation data, which is due later on Wednesday.

Reuters reported on Tuesday that the US launched strikes against Iran after US President Donald Trump said Tehran had shot down a US Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz. Early Tuesday, Trump emphasized that Iran and the US are close to an agreement, though there have been few signs of progress since a tenuous ceasefire took effect in early April.

Uncertainty surrounding the peace deal between the two countries continues to fuel concerns over inflation and expectations of elevated interest rates. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.

Stronger-than-expected US May jobs data have boosted expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this year. Traders will take more cues from the US CPI report later in the day. The headline US CPI is expected to show a rise of 4.2% YoY in May, compared to 3.8% in April. The core CPI is projected to show an increase of 2.9% YoY during the same period, versus 2.8% prior.

Any signs of hotter inflation in the US could boost the Greenback and exert some selling pressure on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.

“The prevailing inflation fears, data strength, Fed hike probability increasing, and break of 200-day moving average have led to a heavy skew negative,” said Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Gold FAQs

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.