Indonesian Rupiah rises as US Dollar trims recent gains despite risk-off mood

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USD/IDR loses ground as the US Dollar pares its daily gains despite prevailing market caution.
Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in June.
The Indonesian Rupiah could face challenges amid falling foreign exchange reserves due to costly central bank interventions.

USD/IDR extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 17,720 during the European hours on Tuesday. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) pares its daily gains despite prevailing market caution. Traders remain on the defensive as they await further updates regarding Iran’s unresolved nuclear program.

US President Donald Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding (MoU) has been signed to end the conflict and reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, though market participants remain deeply cautious. It is important to note that both Washington and Tehran have not released the official text of the agreement, lacking full transparency.

The Greenback could receive further support as traders price in the odds of the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, which could be attributed to the higher US inflation due to elevated energy prices linked to Middle East tensions. Traders will be closely monitoring the press conference for cues on how new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to lead the central bank into its next era.

The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) could face challenges against the US Dollar as falling foreign exchange reserves highlight the rising cost of central bank intervention. This domestic strain is compounded by external trade risks, specifically an impending 18% US tariff package set for July 24 that threatens both exports and capital inflows. However, the Rupiah's losses may be capped ahead of Thursday's Bank Indonesia (BI) meeting, where traders wager policymakers will maintain a hawkish tightening bias to defend the currency.

US Dollar Price Last 7 Days

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the weakest against the Indonesian Rupiah.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	IDR
USD		-0.50%	-0.48%	0.13%	0.38%	-0.21%	-0.17%	-1.79%
EUR	0.50%		-0.01%	0.61%	0.88%	0.30%	0.44%	-2.04%
GBP	0.48%	0.01%		0.56%	0.90%	0.32%	0.36%	-2.38%
JPY	-0.13%	-0.61%	-0.56%		0.26%	-0.23%	-0.21%	-2.36%
CAD	-0.38%	-0.88%	-0.90%	-0.26%		-0.65%	-0.50%	-2.53%
AUD	0.21%	-0.30%	-0.32%	0.23%	0.65%		0.11%	-2.50%
NZD	0.17%	-0.44%	-0.36%	0.21%	0.50%	-0.11%		-2.06%
IDR	1.79%	2.04%	2.38%	2.36%	2.53%	2.50%	2.06%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).