BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes that the Indian Rupee (INR) faces continued pressure, recording the highest level of realized selling among Asia-Pacific (APAC) currencies in March. Despite the significant sell-off, BNY’s tracking indicates that actual positioning remains largely flat, as the currency was previously heavily overheld for carry strategies. Savage highlights that a true value opportunity will only materialize if the currency transitions into underheld territory.

Assessing the risk reward payoff

"On a monthly average basis within APAC (and measured against other currencies in iFlow), INR was the most-sold currency on a realized basis."

"On a holdings basis, monthly average positioning in INR is largely flat, and at the onset of the conflict it was comfortably in overheld territory as a carry name."

"A more compelling risk/reward payoff would only emerge when a currency is not just heavily sold, but sold from an underheld position."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)