Japanese Yen hits one-month lows against US Dollar, boosting intervention risks

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) keeps drifting lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. The USD/JPY pair ticks higher for the fourth consecutive day, reaching fresh one-month highs at 159.45, and nearing the key 160.00 level, considered the limit of tolerable Yen weakness for Japanese authorities.

USD/JPY extends gains on Wednesday and reaches one-month highs right below 159.50.
BoJ Governor Ueda warned about second-round effects from inflation.
Investors will be looking at Tokyo CPI data later this week, to confirm a rate hike in June.

The market has ignored hawkish comments by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, who expressed his concerns about the second-round effects of inflation if the energy shock threatens wages, expectations, and price-setting behaviour.

These comments support the view that the central bank will raise interest rates at its June 15 meeting. The positive impact on the Yen, however, has been offset by investors’ concerns about the Japanese economy’s exposure to high Crude prices and the relatively lower Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields.

Markets will be attentive to a string of Japanese macroeconomic data on Friday, with particular interest in the Tokyo Consumer Prices Index figures, to confirm June’s BoJ decision. Core inflation figures are expected to have remained growing at a steady pace in May, while the Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged, and retail sales are expected to have eased in April.

The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains supported by the hawkish repricing of the Federal Reserve’s stance. Recent data has eased concerns about the US labour market, prompting investors to ramp up bets of an interest rate hike before the year's end. US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index figures, due on Thursday, will be carefully analysed to contrast these views and are likely to set the US Dollar’s near-term direction.

Japanese Yen FAQs

What key factors drive the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen?

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen?

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.