ABN AMRO’s Georgette Boele warns that USD/JPY trading near multi-decade highs has heightened the risk of intervention in the Japanese Yen (JPY). She notes markets are long Dollars and extremely short Yen, leaving room for a sharp reversal if sentiment shifts. Boele argues that, after recent nervousness, USD/JPY may not revisit this week’s elevated levels for some time.

Yen positioning raises reversal risk

"USD/JPY was near multi-decade highs and this raises intervention risk."

"USD/JPY reached its highest level since 1986, suggesting that markets were testing the tolerance of the Japanese authorities, and possibly the US authorities as well."

"Since the beginning of July, markets have become increasingly nervous about the risk of yen intervention."

"Positioning remains stretched: the market is long US dollars and extremely short yen."

"If sentiment shifts in favour of the yen, whether because of intervention concerns or other factors, the recovery could be much sharper."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)