BBH's analysis suggests a bullish outlook for the JPY, regardless of potential intervention from the US. The report notes that USD/JPY is significantly overvalued relative to US-Japan rate differentials, and concerns over Japan's fiscal policy are considered overdone. The combination of loose fiscal policy and tighter monetary policy is seen as positive for the JPY.

Bullish sentiment on JPY persists

"Bessent emphasized yesterday that the US is “absolutely not” intervening in the currency market to weaken USD/JPY and reaffirmed the Treasury’s strong dollar policy. USD/JPY had a kneejerk 1% upswing before pulling back. We remain bullish on JPY regardless of whether there is intervention or not."

"First, USD/JPY is significantly overvalued relative to the level implied by US-Japan rate differentials. Second, worries over Japan fiscal profligacy are overdone given that growth comfortably exceeds borrowing costs. Third, Japan’s mix of loose fiscal policy and tighter monetary policy is JPY positive."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)