Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy decision as the key domestic event, with a first 25 bps hike to 2.50% expected. He notes this could trigger a knee‑jerk New Zealand Dollar (NZD) upswing, supported by improving business and consumer confidence. Markets price roughly 70% odds of a hike and nearly 100 bps of tightening over the next year.

Rate hike expectations support NZD

"The RBNZ policy rate decision is the domestic highlight (10:00pm New York, 3:00am London)."

"We expect the RBNZ to deliver a first 25bps rate hike to 2.50% which can trigger a kneejerk NZD upswing."

"The swaps curve implies 70% odds of a 25bps rate hike today and a total of nearly 100bps of tightening over the next twelve months. That’s roughly in line with the RBNZ policy path projection published in May."

"New Zealand business and consumer confidence surveys are indicative of an ongoing recovery in real GDP growth."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)