Ripple Forecast: XRP springs upward above $1.20 as risk-on sentiment returns

XRP gains momentum underpinned by easing geopolitical tensions

Reports that the US and Iran have reached a tentative agreement to end the war continue to lift sentiment across the crypto market. According to CNN, US President Donald Trump stated that as part of the agreement, the naval blockade on Iranian ports will be lifted and the Strait of Hormuz reopened, removing the chokehold on global Oil and Gas supplies. The full text of the peace deal has not yet been released.

The CNN report said that the ceasefire agreement reached in early April will be extended for 60 days, in both time and scope, to allow the US and Iran to continue nuclear talks.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) shows continued easing in Oil prices to $79.36 from Friday’s high of $85.76. The moderation in Oil prices offers some relief as US inflation remains elevated, having climbed for a third straight month to 4.2% in May, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Appetite for risk assets ticked up amid a notable increase in sentiment, as reflected in the crypto Fear & Greed Index, which rose to 20 on Monday from 18 the previous day and last week’s average of 8.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index | Source: Alternative

The XRP derivatives market mirrors the broader risk-on sentiment, as the perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) rises to $2.54 billion on Monday, up from $2.48 billion the day before and $2.28 billion on June 7. Although marginal, the increase in the OI suggests that investors are gaining confidence in XRP’s ability to uphold recovery and are willing to increase risk exposure.

Price analysis: XRP reclaims $1.20 as momentum stabilizes

XRP trades near $1.24, following a steady increase from the monthly low of $1.05. While the token remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.29, the 100-day EMA near $1.38 and the longer-term 200-day EMA around $1.60, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive on the daily chart, hinting that near-term momentum is stabilizing. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has accelerated above 50 on the same chart, indicating that momentum is turning bullish.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA around $1.29, with further hurdles at the 100-day EMA near $1.38 and the downward resistance trendline break level around $1.43, ahead of the more formidable 200-day EMA close to $1.59.
Looking down, the lack of a clearly defined moving average or structural supports in the daily range suggests that any pullback from current levels could expose XRP to a retest of prior swing lows at $1.05, with buyers needing to defend successive short-term floors to prevent a deeper slide.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Open Interest, funding rate FAQs

How does Open Interest affect cryptocurrency prices?

Higher Open Interest is associated with higher liquidity and new capital inflow to the market. This is considered the equivalent of increase in efficiency and the ongoing trend continues. When Open Interest decreases, it is considered a sign of liquidation in the market, investors are leaving and the overall demand for an asset is on a decline, fueling a bearish sentiment among investors.

How does Funding rates affect cryptocurrency prices?

Funding fees bridge the difference between spot prices and prices of futures contracts of an asset by increasing liquidation risks faced by traders. A consistently high and positive funding rate implies there is a bullish sentiment among market participants and there is an expectation of a price hike. A consistently negative funding rate for an asset implies a bearish sentiment, indicating that traders expect the cryptocurrency’s price to fall and a bearish trend reversal is likely to occur.