Ripple Price Forecast: Bears push XRP to key support while ETFs try to cushion the fall

XRP unlocks outweigh institutional inflows

On-chain data shows that Ripple's programmatic monthly XRP release from escrow wallets unlocked 1 billion XRP over the last 24 hours. However, the unlocks are usually re-locked, keeping the rise in circulation supply to minimal. Still, the misinterpretation of the routine liquidity management as selling pressure often leads deteriorates the retail sentiment.

On the institutional side, the XRP ETFs recorded $131.94 million in inflows in May, while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs offloaded $2.43 billion and $540.88 million last month. The $15.20 million in inflows last week marks its fourth week of inflows, reflecting the steady institutional demand.

Will XRP price break below the crucial demand zone?

XRP hovers around $1.3000 at press time on Monday, extending its decline beneath all the major Exponential Moving Averages and preserving a bearish near-term bias. The pair holds well under the 50-day EMA at $1.3824 and the 100-day EMA at $1.4519, signaling that recent bounces have been sold into rather than accumulated.

Momentum readings back the downside tone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37 on the daily chart shows a downtick toward the oversold boundary, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and signal line extend their decline in the negative territory, hinting that selling pressure remains dominant.

Looking down, a bearish continuation below $1.3000 could threaten the $1.2700-$1.2543 support zone, which remains intacts since February 28. A decisive close below this zone would set XRP on a steady correction wave toward the February 6 low at $1.1179.

Chart Analysis XRP/USDT (Binance) — XRP/USDT daily price chart.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 50-day EMA near 1.38, where any corrective rebound would likely face its first significant supply zone. A sustained break above that barrier would expose the 100-day EMA around 1.45, with the 200-day EMA much higher at 1.65 acting as a broader bearish pivot that caps the larger trend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

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