XRP struggles around $1.40 despite institutional inflows

XRP wobbles as institutional and retail interest clash

XRP continues to attract institutional investors, with total inflows into related financial products averaging $63.1 million last week, according to CoinShares data. Outflows generally slowed, signalling a potential inflection point.

Digital asset flows | Source: CoinShares

Inflows into US-listed spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) totaled $39 million through the week, accounting for the lion’s share of the aforementioned $63.1 million. The cumulative inflow into XRP ETFs stands at $1.22 billion, with net assets under management at $1.04 billion.

Meanwhile, the XRP derivatives market remains weak, as reflected by futures OI falling to $2.47 billion on Monday, from $2.53 billion on the previous day. A minor recovery on Saturday had elevated the OI to $2.63 billion. Still, growing uncertainty in the broader crypto market, risk-off sentiment, and profit-taking, retail interest remains on the back foot.

XRP Futures Open Interest | Source: CoinGlass

Technical outlook: XRP upside limited as sellers tighten grip

XRP is trading around $1.40 as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) descends to $1.83, capping near-term rebounds, while the 100-day EMA at $2.01 reinforces the overall downtrend. The remittance token holds well below both of the moving averages, keeping the broader structure bearish.

Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows the MACD line below the signal line, while the red histogram bars have been contracting, emphasizing the short-term bearish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 34, below the midline and edging toward oversold. A recovery of the RSI above 40 would be necessary to ease pressure.

The descending trend line from $3.66 limits advances, with resistance near $2.16. Meanwhile, the 200-day EMA at $2.19 marks the next barrier. A daily close above the pivotal level at $1.40 could help shift the tone positively as investors lean into risk, and increase the odds of a breakout above the 50-day EMA at $1.83. Still, failure to do so would keep rallies contained and possibly trigger a sell-off toward Friday's low at $1.12.

Cryptocurrency metrics FAQs

What is circulating supply?

The developer or creator of each cryptocurrency decides on the total number of tokens that can be minted or issued. Only a certain number of these assets can be minted by mining, staking or other mechanisms. This is defined by the algorithm of the underlying blockchain technology. On the other hand, circulating supply can also be decreased via actions such as burning tokens, or mistakenly sending assets to addresses of other incompatible blockchains.

What is market capitalization?

Market capitalization is the result of multiplying the circulating supply of a certain asset by the asset’s current market value.

What is trading volume?

Trading volume refers to the total number of tokens for a specific asset that has been transacted or exchanged between buyers and sellers within set trading hours, for example, 24 hours. It is used to gauge market sentiment, this metric combines all volumes on centralized exchanges and decentralized exchanges. Increasing trading volume often denotes the demand for a certain asset as more people are buying and selling the cryptocurrency.

What is the funding rate?

Funding rates are a concept designed to encourage traders to take positions and ensure perpetual contract prices match spot markets. It defines a mechanism by exchanges to ensure that future prices and index prices periodic payments regularly converge. When the funding rate is positive, the price of the perpetual contract is higher than the mark price. This means traders who are bullish and have opened long positions pay traders who are in short positions. On the other hand, a negative funding rate means perpetual prices are below the mark price, and hence traders with short positions pay traders who have opened long positions.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)