Ripple Price Forecast: XRP rebounds amid fading on-chain activity, muted institutional demand

XRP on-chain activity dwindles amid muted ETF demand

XRP is experiencing a significant decline in the number of addresses actively transacting on-chain, sending or receiving assets. CryptoQuant data shows the addresses averaging 14,400 on Monday, down approximately 45% from the March high of around 26,400.

Falling active addresses signal reduced user engagement and ultimately demand for XRP, which could limit the token’s recovery potential.

XRP Active Addresses | Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, institutional demand for XRP digital investment products has dropped significantly over the last few weeks, as evidenced by muted activity in futures Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) on Thursday and Friday.

Cumulative inflows have steadied at $1.21 billion, while net assets under management have dropped to around $933 million, from the record $1.65 billion on January 1.

Technical outlook: XRP rebounds amid broader sideways trend

XRP hovers above $1.35 as bulls battle to regain control, following a sharp rebound from last week's $1.29 trough. Despite the upswing, which mirrors gains across the crypto market, XRP's near-term bias is mildly bearish as price holds below the descending 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, clustered between $1.46 and $1.90, keeping the broader trend under pressure.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator sits below the signal line on the daily chart. The expanding red histogram bars could prompt traders to reduce exposure, weakening the tailwind needed to sustain a short-term recovery. Similarly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the same chart is at 43 and below the 50 midline, indicating sellers retain a slight momentum edge without reaching oversold conditions.

XRP's initial resistance lies at the recent reaction high near $1.40, followed by stronger supply at $1.46, aligning with the 50-day EMA and a descending trendline, where rejection would preserve the corrective structure. A daily close above that moving average would be needed to ease the bearish bias and open the way toward the 100-day EMA at $1.63.

On the downside, immediate support stands at $1.33, ahead of the demand region near $1.30, which acts as the first meaningful floor for dips. A decisive break below $1.30 would expose the next support band toward $1.25, where buyers would be expected to regroup.

Crypto ETF FAQs

What is an ETF?

An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.

Is Bitcoin futures ETF approved?

Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.

Is Bitcoin spot ETF approved?

Yes. The SEC approved in January 2024 the listing and trading of several Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds, opening the door to institutional capital and mainstream investors to trade the main crypto currency. The decision was hailed by the industry as a game changer.

Which are the pros and cons of crypto ETFs?

The main advantage of crypto ETFs is the possibility of gaining exposure to a cryptocurrency without ownership, reducing the risk and cost of holding the asset. Other pros are a lower learning curve and higher security for investors since ETFs take charge of securing the underlying asset holdings. As for the main drawbacks, the main one is that as an investor you can’t have direct ownership of the asset, or, as they say in crypto, “not your keys, not your coins.” Other disadvantages are higher costs associated with holding crypto since ETFs charge fees for active management. Finally, even though investing in ETFs reduces the risk of holding an asset, price swings in the underlying cryptocurrency are likely to be reflected in the investment vehicle too.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)