Ripple Price Forecast: XRP steadies at support with limited upside

US-Iran peace negotiations face headwinds

The United States (US) military launched strikes on Southern Iran around the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, with officials describing the attacks as “self-defense,” designed to protect troops from threats posed by Iranian forces.

US Centcom spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins said in a statement that the strikes were meant to “defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire.”

Meanwhile, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement on Tuesday that the country has a “legitimate and definite” right to defend itself against US ceasefire violations.

The attacks occurred ahead of the planned talks between Iran’s negotiators, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Qatar’s Prime Minister in Doha on Tuesday to finalize the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran.

Despite the strikes, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters during his visit to India that a peace deal was still possible, according to a BBC report.

“We’ll see if we can make progress. I think it's a lot of talking back and forth going on about specific language in the initial document, so it'll take a few days,” Rubio said.

XRP retail demand cools

Interest in risk assets, including XRP, has softened as hopes for an imminent US-Iran peace deal shrink. CoinGlass data shows the futures Open Interest (OI) averaging $2.85 billion on Tuesday, up slightly from $2.83 billion the previous day.

The OI remains relatively subdued, following the brief spike above $3 billion in mid-May and the record high of $10.94 billion in July. This indicates that investors are not confident in XRP’s short-term bullish outlook and are unwilling to open new positions, leaving the token vulnerable to broader crypto market volatility.

Price analysis: XRP tests key support

Bitcoin trades above $1.35, holding a bearish near-term bias as price consolidates below a stack of key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the 50-day EMA at $1.40, the 100-day EMA at $1.47 and the 200-day EMA at $1.68 all acting as overhead supply.

Momentum readings are subdued, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 43 on the daily chart, while the negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) contracting downside histogram hint that bearish pressure persists but is not accelerating.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 50-day EMA at $1.40 and a daily close above this level would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure, exposing the 100-day EMA at $1.47ahead of the 200-day EMA near $1.68. On the downside, the SuperTrend indicator at $1.33 provides the first notable layer of support. A break beneath this zone would reinforce the prevailing bearish structure and open the door to deeper losses.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Open Interest, funding rate FAQs

How does Open Interest affect cryptocurrency prices?

Higher Open Interest is associated with higher liquidity and new capital inflow to the market. This is considered the equivalent of increase in efficiency and the ongoing trend continues. When Open Interest decreases, it is considered a sign of liquidation in the market, investors are leaving and the overall demand for an asset is on a decline, fueling a bearish sentiment among investors.

How does Funding rates affect cryptocurrency prices?

Funding fees bridge the difference between spot prices and prices of futures contracts of an asset by increasing liquidation risks faced by traders. A consistently high and positive funding rate implies there is a bullish sentiment among market participants and there is an expectation of a price hike. A consistently negative funding rate for an asset implies a bearish sentiment, indicating that traders expect the cryptocurrency’s price to fall and a bearish trend reversal is likely to occur.