Silver edges lower despite Middle East tensions as Fed rate hike bets limit recovery

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Silver (XAG/USD) trades slightly lower on Friday, hovering around $59.90 at the time of writing, down a modest 0.08% on the day.

Silver trades around $59.90, down a modest 0.08% on Friday despite heightened geopolitical tensions.
Fears of energy-driven inflation are reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates.
Investors now await next week's US Consumer Price Index data for fresh clues on the Fed's policy outlook.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades slightly lower on Friday, hovering around $59.90 at the time of writing, down a modest 0.08% on the day. The white metal is struggling to extend its rebound as renewed tensions in the Middle East fuel concerns about persistent inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates.

The resumption of hostilities between the United States (US) and Iran has revived concerns over energy supplies, lifting Oil prices and strengthening expectations of persistent inflation. This backdrop keeps expectations for monetary tightening alive and weighs on non-yielding assets such as Silver.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in a high chance of at least one interest rate hike before the end of the year. This outlook is also supporting the US Dollar (USD), whose rebound is limiting the appeal of USD-denominated precious metals.

Meanwhile, investors continue to monitor the latest diplomatic developments between Washington and Tehran. Media reports indicate that technical talks are continuing despite the military clashes, raising hopes of a de-escalation that could ease tensions in energy markets.

Attention now turns to the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday. The inflation report could shape expectations for the Fed's interest rate path and provide the next major catalyst for Silver prices.

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.