Solana Price Forecast: Retail confidence backs SOL testing 50-day EMA breakout near $75

Solana rides on retail demand, with the jury still out on institutional support

Solana is gaining retail strength again, supporting its mild recovery, while Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) struggle to maintain steady inflows. CoinGlass data shows SOL Open Interest (OI) at $5.33 billion on Wednesday, stabilizing above $5 billion after a decline last month. This indicates that positional wipeout is easing, correlating with a relief in risk-off sentiment.

Funding rate, a metric that tracks Solana derivatives sentiment, rose to 0.0073% on Wednesday, indicating that traders are willing to buy long positions at a premium.

On the institutional front, SOL-focused ETFs recorded $2.50 million in outflows on Wednesday, following a $5.52 million inflow the previous day, which reflects a mixed outlook.

Technical outlook: Will SOL extend its rally to $100?

Solana hovers above $75.00 at press time on Wednesday, testing its 50-day EMA at $75.21, which serves as the immediate barrier. A decisive close above this moving average could extend Solana's mild recovery toward the 200-day EMA around $98.79. A breakout rally could support a bullish outlook for SOL, helping it reclaim the $100 mark.

Momentum on the daily chart supports breakout potential, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55, hovering just above the mid‑50s as buying pressure resurfaces. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) rises toward positive territory alongside its signal line, suggesting that upside momentum is improving.

Chart Analysis SOL/USDT (Binance) — SOL/USDT daily price chart.

Looking down, a reversal from the 50-day EMA at $75.21 could trigger a retracement toward the February 6 low of $67.50.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

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