Swiss Franc struggles as safe-haven demand supports USD

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USD/CHF extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around 0.7880 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm, driven by stalled US-Iran peace negotiations and renewed tensions in the Middle East, continued to underpin safe-haven demand.

USD/CHF rises as stalled US-Iran talks and Middle East tensions fuel safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
US Dollar remains firm as the Strait of Hormuz closure raises energy prices and inflation, keeping Fed rates higher for longer.
SNB's Schlegel said that the central bank is ready to intervene against CHF overvaluation pressures from Middle East conflicts.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced Tuesday that it successfully defeated a series of Iranian missile and drone strikes targeting Kuwait and Bahrain. In response to the regional aggression, US forces also executed self-defense strikes against military targets on Iran’s Qeshm Island, per ABC News.

The Strait of Hormuz closure threatens to drive energy prices higher and intensify global inflationary pressures, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period.

Following a revised, more-than-two-year low of CHF 2.6 billion in March, Switzerland's Trade Surplus rebounded to CHF 3.2 billion in April. This expansion was driven by a 3.0% month-over-month decline in imports (falling to CHF 19.0 billion), while exports ticked up 0.1% to reach a three-month high of CHF 22.3 billion.

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel stated on Tuesday that the real overvaluation of the Swiss Franc (CHF) is significantly lower than its nominal overvaluation. Schlegel added that the central bank has heightened its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market to counter overvaluation pressures stemming from the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Swiss Franc FAQs

What key factors drive the Swiss Franc?

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.

Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency?

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.

How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc?

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc?

Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.

How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc?

As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.