TD Securities has revised its GDP growth projections upward for the US economy, anticipating a boost from stronger personal spending and tax refunds in early 2026. The report indicates that economic activity could remain firm, with expectations of a gradual easing path for monetary policy. The unemployment rate is projected to stabilize at 4.3% by Q4 2026. TD Securities Chief US Macro Strategist Oscar Munoz and US Macro Strategist Eli Nir note.

Revised GDP growth expectations

"We revised up our GDP growth projections due to stronger personal spending in Q4 along with a likely boost from tax refunds to start 2026."

"Economic growth and consumption could be lifted to start the year due to larger tax refunds, adding additional risk to the Fed staying on hold for longer."

"We now expect an above-consensus increase in output at 2.3% Q4/Q4 in 2026."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)