USD/CHF eases from daily highs, holds 0.7860 following comments by SNB Schlegel

Middle East war will weigh on economic growth

The Swiss Central Bank president assessed that the war in the Middle East is likely to weigh on the economic growth this year, but that he expects a certain recovery next year. Regarding inflation, Schlegel noted that prices will remain “a little higher” in the coming months, but practically unchanged in the mid-term.

These comments seem to have soothed investors, providing some support to the Swissie, which has depreciated about 0.6% this week, as hopes of a resolution of the Middle East conflict wane, and Oil prices escalate with the Strait of Hormuz closed for already eight weeks.

In the US, economic data were USD-supportive on Thursday. Preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for April showed robust economic activity, and jobless claims confirmed that the labour market remains steady despite last week’s uptick. On Friday, all eyes will be on the press conference of US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, regarding the Operation Epic Fury in Iran, due at 13:00 GMT.

SNB FAQs

What is the Swiss National Bank?

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is the country’s central bank. As an independent central bank, its mandate is to ensure price stability in the medium and long term. To ensure price stability, the SNB aims to maintain appropriate monetary conditions, which are determined by the interest rate level and exchange rates. For the SNB, price stability means a rise in the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) of less than 2% per year.

How does the Swiss National Bank interest-rate policy affect the Swiss Franc?

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board decides the appropriate level of its policy rate according to its price stability objective. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame excessive price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

Does the Swiss National Bank intervene in the forex market?

Yes. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has regularly intervened in the foreign exchange market in order to avoid the Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciating too much against other currencies. A strong CHF hurts the competitiveness of the country’s powerful export sector. Between 2011 and 2015, the SNB implemented a peg to the Euro to limit the CHF advance against it. The bank intervenes in the market using its hefty foreign exchange reserves, usually by buying foreign currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro. During episodes of high inflation, particularly due to energy, the SNB refrains from intervening markets as a strong CHF makes energy imports cheaper, cushioning the price shock for Swiss households and businesses.

When does the Swiss National Bank Governing Council decide on monetary policy?

The SNB meets once a quarter – in March, June, September and December – to conduct its monetary policy assessment. Each of these assessments results in a monetary policy decision and the publication of a medium-term inflation forecast.