USD/CHF Price Forecast: Looks to extend gains beyond 0.7900, three-week top on firmer USD

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The USD/CHF pair attracts some follow-through buyers for the second straight day and retests the three-week top during the early European session on Wednesday. Spot prices now look to build on over one-week-old uptrend further beyond the 0.7900 mark amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).

USD/CHF gains positive traction for the second straight day amid the prevailing USD buying interest.
Geopolitical uncertainties and rising bets for a rate hike by the Fed lift the USD to a six-week high.
The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any further appreciation.

Persistent geopolitical uncertainties, along with hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations amid inflation fears, helps the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, in preserving its recent gains to a six-week high. Bulls, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for the release of FOMC Minutes before positioning for any further appreciating move.

From a technical perspective, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned modestly positive and backs the constructive outlook. However, spot prices location below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a mid-range Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 58 suggest only tentative upside momentum within a broader capped environment.

Hence, any subsequent move up beyond the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-May fall is likely to confront near a dense overhead cluster that starts with the 0.7915-0.7920 horizontal zone and the 61.8% Fibo. at 0.7936. This is followed by the 200-day EMA near 0.7956 and then the 78.6% retracement at 0.7984, with the swing high of 0.8045 acting as a stronger barrier if gains extend.

On the downside, initial support sits at the 50.0% retracement around 0.7902, ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 0.7868, with further floors at the 23.6% Fibo. near 0.7827 and the 0.7759 anchor, where a deeper pullback could seek a more solid base.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/CHF daily chart

Economic Indicator

FOMC Minutes

FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.

Why it matters to traders?

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.