TD Securities strategists note a sharp rally in US rates alongside a risk-on move in equities, with the S&P 500 nearing record highs after softer PPI data. They estimate March core PCE at 0.26% month-on-month. With limited key data, TIC flows, Fed speakers Barr and Bowman, and the Beige Book are in focus, while markets track Middle East conflict developments.

US markets eye flows and Fed signals

"Rates rallied sharply on Tuesday with a risk-on move in equities, moving the S&P 500 just a touch below all-time highs. PPI came in below expectations for headline, with our new core PCE forecast for March at a moderate 0.26% m/m."

"The Senate Banking Committee announced that Kevin Warsh's nomination hearing will be scheduled for April 21 at 10:00am EDT."

"In addition to data, Barr and Bowman are set to speak and the Fed's Beige Book will be released. Markets will remain focused on conflict in the Middle East as they continue to wait on news amid the ongoing ceasefire."

"On Wednesday, with little by way of key data, TIC flows will be of interest as investors look for clues about foreign holdings of Treasuries in February."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)