USD/JPY Price Forecast: Slides further below 153.00; eyes 200-day EMA amid a firmer JPY

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The USD/JPY pair meets with a fresh supply on Tuesday and slides further below the 153.00 mark heading into the European session, reversing a major part of the previous day's positive move.

USD/JPY attracts fresh sellers on Tuesday as hawkish BoJ expectations revive JPY demand.
Subdued USD price action also exerts pressure on spot prices and contributes to the fall.
A break below the 200-day EMA and the 38.2% Fibo. will set the stage for deeper losses.

The USD/JPY pair meets with a fresh supply on Tuesday and slides further below the 153.00 mark heading into the European session, reversing a major part of the previous day's positive move. Spot prices, however, manage to hold above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support, around the 152.50 region, preserving a tentative bullish bias despite a shallow cushion.

Despite Japan's weak Q4 GDP report published on Monday, investors remain hopeful that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's policies will boost the economy and prompt the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to stick to its policy normalization path. This, in turn, helps revive demand for the Japanese Yen (JPY) and exerts some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair amid subdued US Dollar (USD) price action.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below the Signal line near the zero line, and the histogram contracts in negative territory, suggesting fading bearish pressure. Furthermore, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38 (neutral-bearish) keeps momentum subdued. Measured from the 140.03 low to the 159.46 high, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 152.04 offers initial support, with 50.0% at 149.74 next if broken.

Maintaining traction above the 200-day EMA would help contain the pullback and allow a stabilization phase to develop. A MACD bullish crossover with a move into positive territory would strengthen the recovery case, while an RSI break through 50 would reinforce improving impulse. Should the 38.2% retracement give way, the 50.0% retracement at 149.74 would come into view; otherwise, holding the nearby support band could set a platform for a rebound.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY daily chart

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.08%	0.13%	-0.41%	0.03%	0.12%	-0.05%	-0.05%
EUR	-0.08%		0.05%	-0.51%	-0.05%	0.04%	-0.14%	-0.13%
GBP	-0.13%	-0.05%		-0.54%	-0.09%	-0.01%	-0.18%	-0.18%
JPY	0.41%	0.51%	0.54%		0.46%	0.55%	0.36%	0.37%
CAD	-0.03%	0.05%	0.09%	-0.46%		0.09%	-0.09%	-0.08%
AUD	-0.12%	-0.04%	0.00%	-0.55%	-0.09%		-0.18%	-0.17%
NZD	0.05%	0.14%	0.18%	-0.36%	0.09%	0.18%		0.00%
CHF	0.05%	0.13%	0.18%	-0.37%	0.08%	0.17%	-0.00%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).