USD/JPY Price Forecast: Trades below 160.00 intervention threshold; bullish bias intact

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The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Thursday amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY). Furthermore, the Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar (USD) and exerts downward pressure on the currency pair.

USD/JPY retreats from over a one-month high set on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through.
The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire weighs on the USD and the currency pair amid intervention fears.
The bullish technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any corrective decline.

Spot prices, however, lack follow-through and remain close to the 160.00 psychological mark or over a one-month high set earlier today. Economic concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. Adding to this, the uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks, along with hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, acts as a tailwind for the USD and contributes to limiting the downside for the USD/JPY pair.

Spot prices retain a constructive near-term tone within an upward-sloping channel. The lower boundary of the said channel coincides with the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), which acted as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers above the midline, suggesting modest bullish momentum even as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flattens slightly below zero.

Momentum indicators hint at a slower advance rather than a sharp reversal. Hence, any corrective pullback might continue to attract fresh buyers near the 159.45 confluence support. A convincing break, however, might prompt some technical selling and pave the way for deeper losses. As long as buyers defend this support band above 159.44, the broader bias stays tilted higher, and a renewed push toward the channel top at 160.14 remains the primary topside scenario.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Japanese Yen Price Last 30 days

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 30 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.71%	0.76%	1.66%	2.05%	0.54%	-0.02%	0.83%
EUR	-0.71%		0.06%	0.97%	1.36%	-0.20%	-0.70%	0.17%
GBP	-0.76%	-0.06%		0.92%	1.29%	-0.23%	-0.76%	0.12%
JPY	-1.66%	-0.97%	-0.92%		0.35%	-1.16%	-1.66%	-0.82%
CAD	-2.05%	-1.36%	-1.29%	-0.35%		-1.50%	-2.00%	-1.16%
AUD	-0.54%	0.20%	0.23%	1.16%	1.50%		-0.54%	0.39%
NZD	0.02%	0.70%	0.76%	1.66%	2.00%	0.54%		0.89%
CHF	-0.83%	-0.17%	-0.12%	0.82%	1.16%	-0.39%	-0.89%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).