When is the Canadian employment data and how it could it affect USD/CAD?

Canadian employment data preview

The Canadian labor market data for March is scheduled to be published today at 12:30 GMT.

The data is expected to show that the Canadian economy created 15K new jobs after the firing of 83.9K workers in February. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to have increased to 6.8% from the previous reading of 6.7%.

In the report, investors will also focus on Average Hourly Wages data, a key measure of wage growth, which rose 4.2% Year-on-Year (YoY) in February.

Investors will pay close attention to the Canadian employment data to get fresh cues on the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy outlook.

Theoretically, upbeat job figures and strong wage growth data discourage BoC policymakers from loosening monetary conditions. On the contrary, soft numbers force traders to raise dovish BoC bets.

Meanwhile, the outcome of scheduled negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran in Pakistan over the weekend will be the key trigger behind market expectations for global central banks.

How could Canadian employment data affect USD/CAD?

USD/CAD trades 0.15% higher at around 1.3840 ahead of the Canadian employment data release. The pair snaps a four-day losing streak after attracting bids near the two-week low of 1.3800.

The near-term bias is neutral, while the overall outlook remains bullish, as the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) flattens at around 1.3824 after rising for almost a month.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the 40.00-60.00 after cooling down from overbought levels, which signifies cooling momentum; however, the upside bias remains intact.

Looking up, the pair could extend its recovery towards the March 31 high at 1.3967 if it manages to break decisively above the April 2 low of 1.3870. On the downside, immediate support is the two-week low around 1.3800, and a break back under this level would weaken the current constructive tone and expose deeper retracements toward the March 3 high of 1.3752.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Net Change in Employment

The Net Change in Employment released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of people in employment in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and indicates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

Canada’s labor market statistics tend to have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar, with the Employment Change figure carrying most of the weight. There is a significant correlation between the amount of people working and consumption, which impacts inflation and the Bank of Canada’s rate decisions, in turn moving the C$. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be CAD bullish, with currency markets usually reacting steadily and consistently in response to the publication.