WTI eases below $103.50 as US, Iran reportedly seeking 45-day ceasefire

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West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $103.30 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The WTI price retreats after reports that the United States (US) and Iran are making a push for a 45-day ceasefire.

WTI price declines to near $103.30 in Monday’s early European session.
A deal for a 45-day ceasefire is in discussion.
OPEC+ agreed to boost output once Hormuz reopens.

The US, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms ‌for a potential ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing Axios. Optimism surrounding the peace deal between the US and Iran could weigh on the WTI price.

Nonetheless, the Strait of Hormuz, which carries oil and petroleum products from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, remains largely closed due to Iranian attacks on shipping after the war began on February 28. This, in turn, might cap the downside for crude oil prices in the near term.

On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) agreed to a modest rise of 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) for May. The move was expected, with reports saying the group that is managing their production stands ready to start adding barrels quickly should the situation in the Persian Gulf change.

Traders await the release of the American Petroleum Institute (API) report, which will be published later on Tuesday. A larger-than-expected crude oil inventory draw indicates stronger demand and could lift the WTI price, while a bigger build than estimated signals weaker demand or excess supply, which might weigh on the WTI price.

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.