WTI Oil pulls back below $90 despite rising tensions in Iran

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Crude prices are ticking up on Thursday, as Iran and the US exchange attacks, but upside attempts remain limited so far.

WTI Oil remains above weekly lows, yet so far it is failing to consolidate above $90.
Reports of fresh US-Iran hostilities have pushed Cride prices up from lows.
US Oil stocks declined for the sixth consecutive time in the week of May 22.

Crude prices are ticking up on Thursday, as Iran and the US exchange attacks, but upside attempts remain limited so far. The barrel of US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil has failed to consolidate above the $90.00 level during the European session, although it remains about $3 above weekly lows, trading around $89.50 at the time of writing.

A new US attack on Iran, the second in three days, has added strain to a frail ceasefire and triggered a response by Tehran authorities, who said that they targeted a US base in the Gulf region. The Islamic Republic did specify its objective, but Kuwait has reported missile and drone attacks.

Fresh US sanctions complicate Hormuz transit

Beyond that, the US issued fresh sanctions against the recently created Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which regulates traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, further complicating navigation through the waterway. Vessels attempting to cross Hormuz are compelled to seek approval from these authorities, but doing so would now breach US sanctions.

Against this context, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, affirmed earlier on Thursday that the US-Iran war has triggered the “largest energy security crisis the world has ever faced.” Birol assessed that this crisis will reshape investment, leading to changes similar to those that followed the oil shocks in the 1970’s.

US Crude Oil Stocks data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Wednesday showed that Crude inventories declined for the sixth consecutive time in the week of May 22. Oil stocks fell by 2.8 million barrels, following a 9.1 million barrels decline in the previous week, providing additional support to prices.

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.